Kodiak AI, Inc. (KDK)·Q3 2025 Earnings Summary

Executive Summary

• First public quarter delivered strong operational progress while remaining early-stage financially: revenue rose 92.5% YoY to $0.77M, GAAP operating loss was $30.0M, and non-GAAP operating loss (ex-SBC) was $24.7M; quarter-end cash was $146.2M .
• Kodiak doubled customer-owned driverless trucks to 10 (from 5 in Q2) and surpassed 5,200 cumulative paid driverless hours (+166% QoQ), with long-haul safety case “ARM” at 78% and a top Nauto VERA safety score across 1,000+ fleets .
• Q4 FY25 guide: free cash flow of -$36M to -$38M and year-end customer-owned driverless trucks in the mid-to-high teens; management reiterated target to launch long‑haul driverless operations in 2H 2026 .
• Potential stock catalysts: continued industrial truck deployments (toward 100-unit Atlas commitment), updates on ARM progress, additional customer wins (industrial and long-haul), and financing/liquidity actions to fund scaling .

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

What Went Well

• “We are generating revenue and scaling our business” in the first quarter as a public company; customer-owned driverless trucks doubled to 10 and cumulative paid driverless hours exceeded 5,200 (+166% QoQ) .
• Safety and technology validation: long‑haul Autonomous Readiness Measure (ARM) reached 78%; remote assistance needs reduced by 53% via a new software release; Kodiak tied for the top Nauto VERA safety score (perfect 100 in 3 of 4 sub-scores, 95 in the fourth) .
• Commercial scaling infrastructure: Roush launched a dedicated upfit line; expanded ZF partnership to supply 100 redundant steering systems; integrated NXP ISO 26262-compliant processors to improve uptime .

What Went Wrong

• GAAP net loss widened materially to $(269.9)M, driven by large non-operating charges (losses on issuance of preferred stock, common stock, warrants; FV changes in loans and SAFEs), overshadowing operating progress; EPS was $(3.89) vs $(0.33) YoY .
• Cash burn remains elevated: Q3 free cash flow was -$40.0M (includes high single-digit millions of one‑time/public company costs); capex was $6.6M to procure AV components .
• Liquidity will likely need reinforcement: management signaled opportunistic financing over the next 12 months to support scaling and the long‑haul launch timeline .

Financial Results

P&L vs Prior Year

Notes: Non-GAAP excludes stock-based compensation; see reconciliation in the press release .

Operating Expense Breakdown (GAAP vs Non-GAAP)

Cash Flow & Liquidity

QoQ Commentary (quantitative where disclosed)

Note: Q2 figures for trucks derived from management stating Q3 doubled to 10; other Q2 values not numerically disclosed in company materials .

Segment Breakdown and KPIs

• Segment revenue breakdown: Not provided; business model centers on Driver‑as‑a‑Service (per‑mile/per‑vehicle) plus freight services with a path to recurring DAS as long‑haul goes driverless .
• Selected KPIs: 10 customer-owned driverless trucks in operation; >5,200 cumulative paid driverless hours; >3M autonomous miles; >10,000 loads delivered; long‑haul ARM 78% .

Guidance Changes

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

Management Commentary

• “We are generating revenue and scaling our business… deployed the Kodiak Driver in 10 fully driverless trucks… remain on track… launching long‑haul driverless operations in the second half of 2026.” — Don Burnette, CEO .
• “Revenue for the third quarter was $0.8 million… 53% growth over the prior quarter… Non‑GAAP operating loss totaled $24.7 million… Free cash flow was negative $40 million… Ended Q3 with $146.2 million in cash and cash equivalents.” — Surajit Datta, CFO .
• “Today… our long‑haul ARM currently stands at 78%... we expect to make steady progress… Reduced the need for remote assistance by 53% with our Q4 software release.” — Don Burnette .
• “Kodiak received the highest VERA safety score among over 1,000 fleets in Nauto’s network… perfect score of 100 in three of four categories.” — Don Burnette referencing Nauto .

Q&A Highlights

• Supply chain/partners: Expanded ZF is primarily a supplier relationship providing redundant steering components to scale in 2026; management intends to remain platform‑agnostic and upfit‑focused near term .
• Timeline and safety gating: ARM must reach 100% to launch long‑haul driverless; no minimum seasoning time required once complete; target remains 2H 2026 .
• Liquidity: With ~$146M cash, Kodiak expects to opportunistically seek additional financing over the next 12 months to support scaling and the long‑haul launch .
• Efficiency: OTA cut remote assistance by >50%, an important driver of margin scalability in autonomy operations .
• KPIs/Run‑rate: Revenue run‑rate exiting Q4 could be “close” to ~$5M annualized per discussion; FCF guided to -$36M to -$38M in Q4 .

Estimates Context

• Wall Street consensus (S&P Global) for Q3 2025 EPS and revenue was unavailable at time of analysis due to missing S&P CIQ mapping for KDK; as a result, we cannot quantify beats/misses vs consensus this quarter. We will update when S&P Global mapping becomes available [SpgiEstimatesError].
• Management implied QoQ revenue growth of 53% and pointed to accelerating deployments as the driver of forward revenue momentum; estimate revisions may need to incorporate higher industrial deployments and continued DAS ramp, offset by ongoing cash burn and capex for AV kits .

Key Takeaways for Investors

• Kodiak is translating tech leadership into commercial proof points: doubling driverless units, rapid growth in paid driverless hours, and leading third‑party safety validation are differentiators as autonomy commercializes .
• The financial model is early and capital consumptive: GAAP losses are elevated (driven by non‑operating items around the DSPAC) and FCF remains materially negative; liquidity actions are likely within 12 months .
• Near‑term execution hinges on industrial scaling with Atlas (toward 100 trucks), sustained reductions in remote assist, and continued safety case progress (ARM → 100%) for 2H 2026 long‑haul launch .
• Manufacturing readiness via Roush and supply‑chain depth via ZF/NXP reduce scaling risk for 2026 deployments; watch for additional OEM relationship updates .
• Q4 watch items: unit deployments (mid‑to‑high teens by YE), FCF within -$36M to -$38M range, and any incremental customer wins in industrial or long‑haul pilots .
• Regulatory momentum (USDOT beacon waiver) and safety leadership (Nauto VERA) support narrative and could reduce go‑to‑market friction with customers and insurers .

Appendix: Additional Financial Detail

Balance Sheet Highlights (Period-End)

Non-GAAP Reconciliations (Select)

Sources:

• Q3 2025 8‑K and press release with financials and reconciliations .
• Q3 2025 earnings call transcript - and -.
• Nauto safety press release (VERA score) .

Estimates: S&P Global consensus unavailable due to missing mapping (tool error at retrieval time).